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I’m a stock analyst with an MBA and a background in healthcare, bringing years of experience as a Registered Nurse dedicated to patient care. I’ve had the privilege of sharing my insights on Seeking Alpha since 2017. I am most interested in identifying underlying assumptions in stock valuations by emphasizing financial modeling techniques like DCF analysis. I then provide scenario-based forecasts to help readers gauge reasonable outcomes. I am influenced by books like Superforecasting and Antifragile. As such, I advocate for disciplined risk management through a barbell strategy—allocating 90% to safe assets and 10% to high-growth opportunities—to balance security with potential upside. Interested in connecting or collaborating? Feel free to drop me a message!————DCF model assumptions:My valuation model assumes that free cash flow begins at a baseline (Year 0) and grows at a constant annual rate over the following eight years. Each year’s projected cash flow, from Year 1 through Year 8, is discounted to present value using a fixed discount rate, derived via the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), to account for the time value of money and investment risk. After this period, I calculate a terminal value by projecting free cash flow into Year 9—assuming it continues to grow at the same rate—and applying a perpetual growth rate using the Gordon Growth Model. This terminal value is also discounted to present value. Key assumptions include a constant growth rate and discount rate over time, the discount rate exceeding the perpetual growth rate to ensure a finite terminal value, and that free cash flow projections accurately capture future performance without unexpected changes.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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